Dear Investors,
In April, the AEX recovered substantially from the decline in May, with + 5.66%. For April, the figures for the RVM systems were: RVM Strategy + 0.84 % ; RVM Retirement + 0.81 %. The systems thus set new all time highs for the tenth month in a row.
THE MARKET IN APRIL: RECOVERY
Over March, we submitted to readers in our commentary that ASML, a
key driver of the AEX, had been quoting since January near
of what we calculated as an upside target for the full year for the
most important company in the Netherlands. This was a cautionary tale to the extent that if ASML's potential is no longer so great for the year 2026, that if the AEX has to go further up, then perhaps other sectors and companies will carry it. But where does ASML currently stand, in early
trading in May? ASML is up quite a bit in April, but still not much higher than at the January and February tops. We also see in ASML's longer-term charts that the RSI, the Relative Strength Indicator, lags behind
ASML's share price development. In short, it's nice, but ASML still hasn't really moved away from our top calculation for the year.
By the way, these kinds of long-term price target calculations are not there to be perfect
be perfect; they are and remain calculations, based on a great deal of data, and
perfect such a calculation does not have to be. However, it does remain a good
indication of what can be called "expensive" or "cheap. For example AMD, a high-flyer in the U.S. and one the many companies benefiting from A.I. investments, has a top calculation for the year with our algorithm at 430. That level had not been reached in April, but on May 11 as we write this article, that level has been reached and also exceeded. For us, this is another warning, that the companies that are driving up the stock markets are becoming too expensive.
OUR TRADING IN APRIL
It went well, although it was not so favorable for our strategies that there were
included several shortened trading weeks in April. But, of course, it's also
again, not a big deal. We also did not mention some positive results for
April, which will be included in May. This is because the last trading week of
April ended in May. We see this phase of trading as belonging to the
month of May.
Good luck with your investments!
Kind regards,
On behalf of Van Megen Systematic Trading,
Ruud van Megen
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