Publication date: June 1, 2026
What I saw this week in the AEX, in AKZO Nobel, and what it tells us about the direction for June.
The AEX had a weak week. We closed ten points lower than last week, ending May less positive than it began. That the index experienced a decline was not entirely surprising within our method: at the beginning of the week, our calculated price target of 1,053.96 was perfectly touched, and there the cake appeared to be up.
Below the surface, the picture was divided. Some stocks got wind at their backs, others did not.
The biggest outlier of the week was AKZO Nobel. A stock that has basically been dead money for years suddenly got fantasy. A takeover bid was rejected, and the market immediately calculated what that might mean for the company's value. Result: AKZO closed 26 percent higher over the week.
For those who stayed patiently in AKZO, this was a nice surprise. For everyone who walked around it is a reminder that a "dead" stock doesn't always stay dead.
We also saw clear differences in the chip sector this week. BE Semiconductor performed significantly stronger than ASM International and ASML, both of which finished in the red. For a sector that we have been following extra critically for some time, it is interesting to see that even within that sector the direction is not unambiguous. One chip company is not the other.
It is in divided, volatile weeks like this that a systematic approach shows why we have it. At the beginning of the week there was still a long signal, and on Tuesday the market turned to short. For both signals, in accordance with algorithm, the corresponding position was taken.
Because the calculation predicted large outcomes, we took into account significant swings within the week. That is exactly why we do not stick to one view, but let ourselves be guided by what the algorithm dictates.
The system reached a new all time high again this week.
The index seems to have encountered resistance at the level we calculated for May. For June, we take into account a renewed attempt at the all time high of the AEX, but also the previously mentioned possibility of a decline towards 942 sometime this year. This expectation may change the longer the AEX manages to remain at high levels.
The end of May was not particularly cheerful for index followers. For those who invest systematically, it was a week where the algorithm did its job.
Have a good weekend, and see you at the review at the end of next week.
Kind regards,
On behalf of Van Megen Systematic Trading,
Ruud van Megen