Market Diary: RVM Retirement & RVM Strategy · Week III (July 13–17, 2026)
Publication Date: July 20, 2026 · Category: Traders’ Insights · by Ruud van Megen
The AEX closed Week III higher, but due to the weak performance on Friday and the high volatility throughout the week, it certainly didn’t feel like a positive week. If you look only at the week’s close, you’ll see a gain; if you lived through the week , you know it was a rollercoaster ride. It makes no difference to us in terms of position selection —we always follow the system’s trading rules.
Semiconductors Drive the AEX
This year ,the AEX has been driven primarily by semiconductor stocks : ASML, ASMI, and BESI. This means we have plenty of “Nasdaq-quality” stocks right here in Amsterdam . ASML reported earnings this week, which made us cautious about taking a position in the AEX, because unpredictability in ASML means unpredictability for the AEX index. As it turned out: despite fantastic earnings, ASML closed the week lower. ASML’s highest weekly close stilldates back five weeks.
Be Semiconductor saw an even steeper decline. That stock has now fallen 31% from its peak and is back at the April 20 price , but the pattern is the same as with ASML. Everything is in line with the global trend in semiconductors: investors are taking profits, and those who bought at the peak are currently out of luck.
Don’t chasethe winners; follow the index
The AEX was unexpectedly led this week by CVC Capital Partners, following an upgrade by analysts, followed by Shell (not unexpectedly, given the escalating conflict in Iran), RelX, DSM, IMCD, and AEGON. So it certainly wasn’t hyped stocks that led the way this time. That’s good to see, and it confirms what we’ve known for a while: it’s wise to invest in the index and not try to pick out the future winners . If you can do that, great, but most investors aren’t able to pull it off consistently.
I like to point out which sectors led the way based on a century of investing in the 20th century: among the top ten from 1900 to 1999, there was only one technology stock. Technological developments may dominate stock market news and even an entire era, but for the investor, it’s the long term that counts. And in the long term, it’s a fact that technologies come and go. History teaches us that technology doesn’t have to be the investor’s primary focus.
The Stock Market in 2026: SpaceX
We’ve rarely seen the way company valuations are being tossed around in 2026. Absurdly high and absurdly low valuations exist side by side, and if the stock market ever resembled a casino (especially in the tech sector), it certainly does now. Take SpaceX: as of July 20, the stock is down 53% from its peak. The price is now also below the IPO price.
The company is incurring losses and its debt is enormous, and yet the average price target set by analysts worldwide for Space Exploration Technologies is well above the current share price: an average of $240, compared to a market price of about $119 per share. The highest price target comes from Raymond James Financial ($800), the lowest from Morningstar ($63). That enormous difference is entirely about “dreams.” Morningstar is the realist and does indeed factor in improved profitability, but even then does not arrive at a higher price target. Raymond James is fully on board with Elon Musk’s dream: a fully reusable rocket that reduces the cost of space travel to a fraction of what it is now, combined with Starlink and AI—a company that could become more powerful than many nations. It is simply impossible to say anything with certainty about this, and that is precisely why we do not let ourselves be swayed by such stories.
The Temporary Employment Sector
Far removed from all this fantasy, another interesting development is unfolding. Randstad was ultimately delisted from the AEX due to year-over-year weaker performance; for years, it was dead money. Randstad’s stock price in March 2026 was the same as it was in 1998. That’s how investing can go: you hold onto your stocks as your trusted advisor recommended, you wake up again in March 2026, and you see that nothing has changed in 28 years. The comparison isn’t entirely fair—Randstad generally paid a good dividend—but you get the point.
We saw just how opportunistic it is to kick underperforming companies out of the index last week. PageGroup rose 27.50%, ManpowerGroup 35.20%, Adecco 17.78%, and Randstad 14.49%. Suddenly, the staffing sector is back in the spotlight. Manpower reported better results, particularly in the U.S. and southern Europe, and profit growth is also expected at Randstad. The earnings report is due on Wednesday, July 22, and then we’ll see if the stock hasn’t gotten ahead of itself. Of course, we do not invest in Randstad, and the company is no longer listed on the AEX, but the sector remains interesting: there are major labor shortages in the economy, and AI, in particular, can lead to greater efficiency here.
Our positions last week
Given ASML’s earnings report on Wednesday—perhaps the most important earnings report on the Amsterdam stock exchange this season—caution was warranted. On Monday, there was no clear trading signal until the closing auction; only then could we identify a short signal for the week.
On Wednesday, ASML’s earnings led to a much higher opening for the AEX, exceeding all our projections for the week. There was now an “old” short signal from Monday and a “new” long signal from Wednesday, meaning the position choice could be either bullish or bearish, taking into account that the bullish price targets for the week had already been met. This played out well. The RVM systems reached a new all-time high.
In conclusion
A market that has surpassed all its price targets is not yet a reason to expect significant declines in the long term. Our calculated upside price targets could be broken to the upside; it remains to be seen whether they indicate a resistance level. How we handle this: if we hold an index ETF, we’ll take profits on most of it. If we don’t hold that position, we’ll mainly monitor whether a longer-term trend-short signal emerges. Our trading system continues, as always, to generate short-term price targets to which we respond. This is independent of longer-term price targets.
