Monthly Summary for April: RVM Retirement
Dear Investors,
In May, the AEX rose further, by + 2.05 %. For May, the figure for RVM Retirement was + 0.65 %. Whoever follows RVM Strategy, the market commentary is identical at this time.
THE MARKET IN MAY
For the AEX, May was a good month, up + 2.05 %. The March loss has now been made up, but the end of May was weak. At the beginning of last week, our calculated price target for the month was exactly touched, and then the cake appeared to have run out. We are barely a percent higher than in February at the moment, with the index then.
May was the 14th month in the rise from April 2025, so we are well into this cycle. That certainly does not mean that it could not go higher, we have and are holding higher price targets for this year because we have been able to calculate them. But for this cycle a long entry point was there at the latest in September 2025, after that long-only investors might have been able to buy declines, but that was it.
Getting into the big trend becomes increasingly risky the longer a cycle runs. Inevitably, after all, the downward part of the cycle also comes; there always is.
This downward part of the cycle becomes potentially interesting for us to buy longer-term positions again. Right now everything that passes our long-term screening is either in a long-term downtrend (1) and then we may not buy, or too expensive (2) and then we may not buy either. Hence, we stick to our algorithm, and for long-term buys we lurk, to see when we think the conditions are right.
FUN FACT
An upside price target of 1,053.96 was calculated for the AEX in May by our algorithm, and it was perfectly achieved last week, two points above it even. The level also turned out to be resistance, duly noted.
It is always wonderful to see how our algorithm's price target calculations turn out to be a good guide for portfolio choices, much better than reports on the economy and politics.
OUR TRADING IN MAY
Things went fine in May, although the swings remained very large and thus the algorithm always indicated that swings of 5%, and sometimes even more, in a week should be taken into account. Trading positions were as per algorithm.
LOOKING AHEAD TO JUNE
The decline that started at the end of May seems to be turning out to be buyable at this point in the cycle. So in principle, we expect another attack on the all time high of the AEX in June.
But of course, things could turn out differently. We also expect another drop of about 10% this year, towards 942. We monitor this every month, because this expectation can change the longer the AEX manages to stay at a high level. But of course this expectation also plays into our consideration of not wanting to buy anything long-term at the moment.
Have a good weekend and see you at the weekly review at the end of the week.
With kind regards,
On behalf of Van Megen Systematic Trading,
Ruud van Megen
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