Marktdagboek RVM Retirement & RVM Strategy

Week V (July 27–31, 2026)

Publication Date: August 3, 2026 · Category: Traders’ Insight · by Ruud van Megen

The last week of July was a very challenging one. This was because the signals guiding the index were highly mixed last week. It was also a week of many important corporate earnings reports and, perhaps even more importantly, the week of the first interest rate decision by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, in the U.S.

The Positions

On Monday, we received a short signal for the AEX for the week, but we were unable to act on it that same day because the signal only became clear after the closing auction. So on Tuesday morning, we were able to open the short position for the week. By the close of trading on Tuesday, we had another long signal. However, as far as we could tell, the underlying longer-term signal for our index had turned negative. We did note the long signal, but approached it very cautiously. Based on the market conditions on Tuesday and Monday, we considered it most likely that the Fed’s interest rate decision would lead to a further decline.

On Wednesday, there was indeed a very large intraday swing and thus a highly volatile day, but on balance, the closing price did not differ much from Tuesday’s.

The fact that the Fed left interest rates unchanged led to a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, particularly after Warsh’s remarks. The AEX futures were also significantly lower overnight.

However, on Thursday, we saw a very strong opening hour on the AEX, and this momentum held. The Dutch index thus moved in the exact opposite direction of what had been seen in the U.S. As Thursday progressed, it also became clear that a new long signal was emerging on the AEX, with a price target around 1118. We therefore established a call spread with a two-month maturity, based on this higher price target.

On Friday, the AEX ultimately experienced a correction from a new all-time high. This meant that our weekly profit was once again solid. We were also able to take a new short position in anticipation of next week, since we now have upside protection in the form of the call spread we established. This call spread offers limited risk relative to the potential reward over the coming months.

Various Executions

We had different executions for different positions, so we again used average prices as a basis.

The figures

Closed positions for Week V — RVM Strategy: − 1 CALL AEOM 1115.00 and − 1 PUT AEOM 1125.00 (both expired worthless). RVM Retirement: − 1 CALL AEOM 1115.00 and − 1 PUT AEOM 1040.00.

Results for July AEX options — RVM Strategy: Week 1 €0.00, Week 2 +€21.53, Week 3 +€21.38, Week 4 +€14.58, Week 5 +€36.38.

Results for July AEX options — RVM Retirement: Week 1 €0.00, Week 2 +€21.65, Week 3 +€19.76, Week 4 +€13.33, Week 5 +€34.38.

Current position (target price position, expiring in September): + 1 CALL AEX SEPT 1115.00 / − 1 CALL AEX SEPT 1125.00, plus − 1 CALL AX1 AUG 1120.00 as a hedged weekly position.