Market Diary: RVM Retirement & RVM Strategy

Week IV · July 20–24, 2026

Publication Date: July 30, 2026 · Category: Traders’ Insight · by Ruud van Megen

First, a quick note: Every so often, we remind you that at Retirement, we will once again be making long-term investments, just as we did from 2019 through 2025. We have several investments in mind. However, we have currently established the criteria for entering these investments based on the levels of certain underlying assets.

One criterion is that our own AEX index must be around the 1,000-point level, which is about 10% lower than where we are now. This level may rise slightly over time, but this is currently our guideline. We believe we have all the time in the world, so we’re sticking to this approach. We’re also keeping the desired level of the S&P 500 in the U.S. in mind, but at the moment, this hardly differs from what we need to see with the AEX; the declines toward better prices are comparable.

Why We’re Waiting for Better Prices

Those of you with less experience in the stock market should keep in mind that when the AEX hit the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the index’s low point was 48% lower within just a few weeks. This is an extreme example, but it happens time and again in the stock market. Those who lacked patience at the time and invested, for example, in late 2019 or early 2020, would have been far too early in hindsight and would have been better off sitting on the sidelines. At its low point in 2020, the AEX index had fallen back to levels last seen in 2013 and 2014. Again, losing six years’ worth of price gains in just a few weeks is extreme, but this example illustrates why we’re patiently waiting for better prices for our long-term investments.

A few more statistics

• 2021 was an exceptionally strong year. The major investment opportunity was in 2020, and anyone who wasn’t positioned for the long term in 2021 failed to buy the dip that year.
• But this wasn’t a “mistake” on the part of patient investors. Because when the opportunity didn’t come in 2021, it came in 2022. That was a bad year for stocks, and at its low point in 2022, the AEX was below its opening level for 2021. So for investors who hadn’t sold at that time, the strong stock market year of 2021 was worth nothing, aside from dividends paid out.
• For those who hadn’t yet invested for the long term in 2023 and wanted to wait for a dip before doing so, the opportunity came in October 2023. By then, the AEX had virtually returned to its opening price for the year.
• Those who started 2024 without any long-term investments never saw the year’s opening price again. The stock market peaked in July, and investors waiting for better prices got their chance during the extreme market crash in August. However, they had to buy immediately, because the low point of the August 2024 flash crash was not seen again later in the year. Investors for whom all this would have been too volatile got another chance in 2025.
• In 2025, Trump triggered the stock market crash in April—one you’re probably familiar with. It was the fastest decline ever recorded for the Amsterdam AEX, dropping to 2023 price levels in just three days. The entire strong stock market year of 2024 was thus wiped out at the low point of the Trump crash.

So far in 2026, we’ve only had one weak month—March—and if this stock market year turns out to be like 2021, for example, there may not be a major decline. But we hope our statistics have shown you that, in that case, the likelihood of a major decline will indeed materialize in 2027. Statistically speaking, the probability of avoiding a major decline in an index is truly very small. Probability calculation is one of our most important tools as investors, so you now know that the odds are in your favor if, with long-term investments, you wait until panic sets in. Patience is one of an investor’s greatest weapons, if not the greatest weapon of all.

Our positions last week

Last week, the AEX was slightly weaker, and “technically” speaking, all sorts of sell signals are now possible here. But the index is holding up well, which isn’t surprising based on our analytical tools, as quantitative calculations still indicate the potential for higher prices.

Here’s how it played out: On Monday, we received a short signal for the AEX for the week, and that signal remained in place on Tuesday. We adjusted our positions accordingly. On Wednesday, our system then issued a long signal, but there were caveats: our monitoring systems—which, in the event of a rise, attempt to identify a potential top and, in the event of a decline, a potential bottom—indicated that a top was forming. A trading signal on Wednesday is generally too late for us to take any action anyway, but it was primarily the potential short-term top signal that prevented us from also taking a long position for the week.

On Thursday, we then saw heavy selling in the AEX. The index fell every hour until we reached our calculated downward price target for the week, the 1085 zone. In hindsight, the possibility of a top forming, as indicated by our monitoring systems, was therefore correct. Buyers appeared to be re-entering the market at 1085, our support level, and that’s exactly what happened on Friday: buying occurred at that level there as well. It’s always nice to see the calculations work out so well, but unfortunately, you can’t assume that will happen in advance. There’s always a chance that our support level will be broken.

All in all, we stuck with the cautious short position for the week, and that worked out well. There were some variations in execution prices, so as usual, we used the average price for the position as the system result. At this time, we at RVM Retirement have no long-term positions in our portfolio.

The figures

Position Week IV: a written call, −1 CALL AX4 1122.00, which expired worthless.

Results for July AEX options — RVM Strategy: Week 1 €0.00, Week 2 +€21.53, Week 3 +€21.38, Week 4 +€14.58.

Results for July AEX options — RVM Retirement: Week 1 €0.00, Week 2 +€21.65, Week 3 +€19.76, Week 4 +€13.33.