Webinar Recap: Stock Market Chat with Bram Schottey and Henry van Ginkel
In this Stock Market Chat, traders Bram Schottey and Henry van Ginkel discussed the current market, the role of interest rates, and the question on every investor’s mind: Will the stock market continue to rise, or is a correction coming?
Publication date: August 6, 2026 · Category: Traders’ Insights
Led by host Michael, both traders discussed the most important developments in the financial markets. Both trade primarily in the U.S. markets, but with very different approaches. While one works with options, the other relies entirely on quantitative, automated systems. It was precisely this difference that made the conversation so interesting.
The Market in July: The AEX and ASML
The discussion began with the results. The AEX was up about 2 percent for the month, outperforming the broader market, while the MSCI World Index remained stuck around 0.77 percent. The explanation is well known: ASML now accounts for about 30 percent of the index. At its peak in July, the AEX was even up about 4.4 percent, driven primarily by ASML. When that stock pulled back somewhat, the monthly gain settled around 2 percent. Across the ocean, stocks related to artificial intelligence actually took a hit, which weighed on the broader U.S. indices.
Sector rotation? Above all, discipline within one’s own system
When asked how they track sector rotation, both traders were candid. Bram doesn’t look at sectors, but at individual U.S. stocks. The daily chart is his foundation; he uses the weekly and monthly charts to confirm the trend. Henry trades his clients’ systems entirely quantitatively and does not consider sector rotation for that purpose. For his own day trading, however, he does pay attention to which sectors are performing strongest on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. The core principle for both is the same: the system and the fixed rules are what matter most, not the story of the day.
Why Macroeconomic Data Rarely Makes the Difference
Macroeconomic data also plays virtually no role in their approach. According to Henry, the stock market is about nine months ahead of the economy, which means that data on earnings or unemployment often lags behind what stock prices have already done. As an example of runaway euphoria, he cited the South Korean market, which had risen by about 150 percent in just over a year. When the tide turned, more than 1.2 million investors received margin calls, and hundreds of thousands of positions were forcibly liquidated. The lesson traders take from this: you only hear stories like this at the bottom, never at the top.
The poll: What do investors expect?
During the webinar, the audience was asked about their expectations for the next six months. A large group—44 percent—anticipated a correction of more than 10 percent. The rest were split between a sideways market and a further rise. Interestingly, both traders themselves were in the optimistic camp. Henry compared the current dynamics to the year 1999, and for Bram’s system, the direction matters less: both a sideways and a rising market are favorable. The traders view the fact that many professional investors are being cautious as a healthy sign rather than a cause for concern.
Interest Rates and the Role of the Bond Market
One of the most compelling insights concerned interest rates. According to Henry, interest rate policy is not actually determined by the Federal Reserve or the ECB, but by the bond market. Central banks generally lag behind. He illustrated this with a long-term chart showing that market interest rates consistently lead policy rates. The U.S. 30-year yield stood at around 5.1 percent and the 10-year yield at around 4.9 percent. At the same time, both emphasized that the enormous amount of money in circulation ultimately plays a major role, and that inflation isn’t necessarily bad for the stock market.
Geopolitics as the Biggest Variable
In a second poll, the audience selected geopolitical tensions as the development with the greatest influence on the markets, and both traders agreed. The unrest in the Middle East and the volatility of oil prices are clear examples of this. However, they immediately put the effect into perspective: in the long term, the stock market often pays little attention to such events, and there is almost always a sector—such as defense—that actually benefits. Here, too, their conclusion was that you don’t need to predict the market to invest in it systematically.
The common thread: systematic investing
The overarching message of the evening was that you don’t need to predict the market. Through Systems2follow, you follow traders who adhere to their own set of rules, with Mexem acting as the partner broker and the Trade Connector executing the positions in your own investment account. If you’d like to explore the speakers’ approaches further, check out Bram Schottey’s Big Strangle King or Henry van Ginkel’s ES systems.
Watch the full recording
The full webinar is available on our YouTube channel. Watch the recording of the “Beurspraatje” here. Want to know which system suits your situation? Schedule a no-obligation consultation.