Traders Insight — Webinar Recap · July 2, 2026
On Tuesday evening, July 1, we once again held our monthly S2F Market Talk. Simeon Hoefnagels hosted traders Ruud van Megen (RVM Systems) and Bram Voermans (S&P 500 Weekly Option) for over an hour to discuss the current market, the systems’ results, and their outlook for the coming period. And the topic turned out to be right on the money: just one day later, on July 2, ASML fell by more than 2% again, and the AEX lost half a percent. This was precisely the tension that the evening’s discussion centered on.
Why Amsterdam Is Beating Wall Street
A recurring question during the broadcast: Why has the AEX risen so sharply, while the S&P 500 and the global index are lagging behind? The answer lies largely in one name: ASML. The chip equipment manufacturer—and, to a lesser extent, ASM International and Besi—has virtually single-handedly propelled the Amsterdam index to record highs.
The most recent boost came from Elon Musk, who gave a talk at ASML and emphasized how indispensable the company is to his own chip ambitions for SpaceX. The stock skyrocketed the next day, pulling the AEX along with it. Great news for ASML investors, but it also exposes a vulnerability: when a single horse is pulling the cart, you feel it immediately if that horse stumbles. The price drop on July 2 demonstrated this right away.
Under the hood: the index masks the broad weakness
Ruud pointed out something many investors overlook. The index looks strong, but “under the hood,” many high-quality companies are actually well below their previous peaks. Think of names like Nike and PayPal (roughly 80% below their peaks), Novo Nordisk (Europe’s largest company just two years ago, now trading significantly lower), and even Microsoft, which has lost tens of percent over the course of a year.
So how can an index still set records? Because a growing portion of the money automatically flows to the largest companies via passive ETFs. Anyone who “simply buys the S&P 500” without further research reinforces that trend. That works as long as the biggest names are rising, but it also creates a concentration risk that can actually work against you during a period of market turmoil.
An expensive market calls for risk awareness
Within the RVM system, price targets are calculated both on the upside and the downside, and positions are taken at those levels. An important signal right now: the AEX has surpassed the upper calculated price targets for the year. Whether those levels will prove to be genuine resistance is never certain, but it is certainly a reason to be more vigilant.
The message from both traders was, above all, one of risk awareness. A correction of 10 to 20% is part of investing and, in and of itself, says little about the long term. To put things into perspective, Ruud even cited extreme historical declines (from the crash of 1929–1932 to the war years)—not as a prediction, but to show that a system must be able to withstand severe scenarios. The key question is not just “how much can I earn,” but just as much “how much risk am I taking to do so.”
Interest rates remain the main driver
The direction of the stock market is closely linked to interest rates. Inflation is still above target, making an interest rate cut unlikely for the time being. Ruud indicated that he considers a rate hike even more likely than a cut. On the other hand, there is political pressure for lower interest rates, in part to finance the U.S. national debt affordably. The ECB has a stricter mandate, focused purely on inflation, and has stuck to its 2% target. In short: the interest rate outlook will continue to determine market sentiment in the coming months.
Realized Returns vs. Current Returns
An insightful point from Ruud, and useful for every investor: at RVM Retirement and RVM Strategy, the focus is on realized gains, not current returns. The money is in the bank. That’s a fundamental difference from a portfolio that’s only in the black on paper—due, for example, to a rise in ASML’s stock price—because that return can evaporate just as quickly. With a market-neutral system, results are realized month after month, and returns build up step by step. A percentage therefore only tells you something if you know whether it refers to a locked-in or floating return.
Market-neutral, directional, and the value of diversification
The systems on the platform fall roughly into two camps. Directional, “long” systems such as Global Strategy and the ES systems benefited greatly from the AI hype and posted substantial returns. Market-neutral systems, such as RVM Retirement and Bram’s weekly options system, aim instead for a more consistent return, regardless of market direction.
The point both traders made: in a rising market, directional systems lead the way, but in a falling market, market-neutral systems hold up better. That’s precisely why a combination is often wise. Diversifying across multiple systems (and possibly ETFs) makes you less dependent on a single scenario.
Two practical notes from the Q&A session. First, the costs: expect a return of about 4 to 7% to cover transaction costs, depending on the system; the underlying results must therefore be strong to yield a solid net return. Second, regarding the question of what a market-neutral system does in the event of a sudden 4% overnight move: the system is currently showing a trend-short signal and could actively go short in the event of a sharp decline. In doing so, it follows its rules, not the gut feeling of the moment.
What We Take Away
- A strong index can mask broad weakness. The AEX relies heavily on ASML; beneath the surface, many companies are well below their peaks.
- Risk deserves just as much attention as return. An expensive market is no reason to panic, but it is a reason to be realistic and to distinguish between realized and current returns.
- Diversification is the answer to uncertainty. A mix of directional and market-neutral strategies makes you less dependent on which way the market is heading.
Watch the full “Beurspraatje” episode
The full recording is available on our YouTube channel.
